I was sent the latest Howey-Gauge last night. Some interesting highlights.

The majority of those polled believe:

• That things in Indiana are on the right track
• The most important issue facing the state of Indiana today is jobs and wages
• 64% stated that on a scale of 1-10 their interest in this falls elections is 10

Other interesting tidbits

• Both McCain’s and Obama’s name recognition is 99%
• Mitch Daniels’ name recognition is 96%
• Jill Long-Thompson’s name recognition is only 77%
• Becky Skillman’s name recognition is 51%
• Dennis Oxley’s name recognition is a mere 17%
• A majority want to see Mitch Daniels re-elected
• 11% of voters are still undecided
• If the election were held today, Daniels would get 53%, Lon-Thompson only 35%
• A combined 72% say gradual withdrawal from Iraq by 2011 or keep troop levels the same
• Obama and McCain are virtually tied at 45% - 43%

The entire poll is below the fold.

Gauge Market Research
A Howey-Gauge Poll
Indiana Statewide Survey
September 2008

Introduction & Methodology

This report represents the results of a scientific survey of public opinion among 600 likely voters in Indiana conducted August 29-30, 2008.

The sample population was scientifically selected to meet rigid criteria of random selection and geographical allocation. Survey results for the sample of 600 registered voters provides a sampling error factor of plus or minus 4.1% at the .95 level of confidence; however, error factors for various geographical areas and crosstabulations contained in this report may vary widely depending upon the number of respondents in each cell.

Gauge Market Research follows established and accepted procedures for sample selection, survey design, and analysis. All survey research, however, is subject to a margin of statistical error.

Crosstabulation tables are included in the Crosstabulation Section.

SURVEY NAME: HOWEY-GAUGE POLL #3 INDIANA STATEWIDE
SAMPLE SIZE: 600 LIKELY VOTERS STATEWIDE
FIELD DATES: AUGUST 29-30, 2008

Hello, my name is ________________________ with Gauge Market Research. We do not sell anything; we just conduct various types of surveys. Tonight we are conducting a public opinion survey among registered voters in Indiana.

I would like to speak to the youngest male, registered voter who is at home now who is eligible to vote in Indiana elections. (IF NO MALE AVAILABLE, ASK…) May I speak to the youngest registered female voter who is at home now who is eligible to vote in Indiana elections?

Thinking about the upcoming November 4th election, are you definitely, probably, or not likely to vote.
(POLITELY TERMINATE IF NOT DEFINITELY VOTE; SCREEN FOR VOTER IN DISTRICT, AGE AND
GENDER)

Do you or does anyone in this household work for:
The news media? (IF YES, POLITELY TERMINATE)
Advertising or public relations? (IF YES, POLITELY TERMINATE)
A marketing research firm? (IF YES, POLITELY TERMINATE)
An elected public official? (IF YES, POLITELY TERMINATE)

1. In which Indiana County do you live?
NIELSEN DMA
Ft. Wayne, IN 10%
Cincinnati, OH 3%
Indianapolis, IN 43%
Louisville, KY 6%
Dayton, OH 1%
Terre Haute, IN 5%
Lafayette, IN 3%
South Bend-Elkhart, IN 10%
Chicago, IL 14%
Evansville, IN 7%

2. Would you say that things in Indiana are on the right track and getting better or off on the wrong track and getting worse? (CONTINUE WITH…) Do you feel strongly about that?

3. DIRECTION FOR INDIANA
Strongly Wrong Track 21%
Wrong Track 14%
Staying About The Same 17%
Right Track 24%
Strongly Right Track 23%
Total Wrong Track 35%
Total Right Track 47%

3. What is the most important issue facing the state of Indiana today that you would most like to see your elected officials take action on to help you and your family? (PROBE)

4. MAJOR PROBLEM FACING INDIANA
Education 8%
Jobs And Wages 30%
Taxes 18%
Economy 4%
Loss Of Industry 1%
Government 5%
Crime, Drugs 2%
Healthcare 9%
Help the Poor, Elderly 3%
Morals, Family Values 2%
Traffic And Roads 1%
Gasoline Prices 8%
Daylight Savings Time 0%
Uncertain 6%
Other 3%

4. Please tell me how interested you are in this November’s elections, using a scale from one to ten, on which a ten means that you are extremely interested in this November’s elections, and a one means that you are not at all interested in this November’s elections. You may choose any number from one to ten, depending on how interested you are. (SCALE 1 TO 10, OR NOT SURE/REFUSED)

5. LEVEL OF INTEREST
1 0%
3 0%
5 1%
6 3%
7 7%
8 15%
9 9%
10 64%

5. As I read a list of names, please tell whether or not you are familiar with each name. If you have never heard the name just say so. (RANDOM ORDER) The first/next name is John McCain. (IF RECOGNIZE, ASK…) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him?

6. JOHN MCCAIN NAME RECOGNITION
No Recognition 1%
Favorable Recognition 55%
Neutral Recognition 17%
Unfavorable Recognition 27%
Total Awareness 99%
Hard Opinion Recognition 82%
Ratio Favorable/Unfavorable 2.0:1

6. The first/next name is Barack Obama. (IF RECOGNIZE, ASK…) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him?

7. BARACK OBAMA NAME RECOGNITION
No Recognition 1%
Favorable Recognition 56%
Neutral Recognition 16%
Unfavorable Recognition 27%
Total Awareness 99%
Hard Opinion Recognition 83%
Ratio Favorable/Unfavorable 2.1:1

7. The first/next name is Mitch Daniels. (IF RECOGNIZE, ASK…) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him?

8. MITCH DANIELS NAME RECOGNITION
No Recognition 4%
Favorable Recognition 56%
Neutral Recognition 12%
Unfavorable Recognition 28%
Total Awareness 96%
Hard Opinion Recognition 84%
Ratio Favorable/Unfavorable 2.0:1

8. The first/next name is Jill Long-Thompson. (IF RECOGNIZE, ASK…) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of her?

9. JILL LONG-THOMPSON NAME RECOGNITION
No Recognition 23%
Favorable Recognition 32%
Neutral Recognition 26%
Unfavorable Recognition 19%
Total Awareness 77%
Hard Opinion Recognition 51%
Ratio Favorable/Unfavorable 1.7:1

9. The first/next name is Andrew Horning. (IF RECOGNIZE, ASK…) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him?

10. ANDREW HORNING NAME RECOGNITION
No Recognition 80%
Favorable Recognition 5%
Neutral Recognition 12%
Unfavorable Recognition 3%
Total Awareness 20%
Hard Opinion Recognition 8%
Ratio Favorable/Unfavorable 1.7:1

10. The first/next name is Becky Skillman. (IF RECOGNIZE, ASK…) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of her?

11. BECKY SKILLMAN NAME RECOGNITION
No Recognition 49%
Favorable Recognition 25%
Neutral Recognition 21%
Unfavorable Recognition 5%
Total Awareness 51%
Hard Opinion Recognition 30%
Ratio Favorable/Unfavorable 5.0:1

11. The first/next name is Dennie (PRONOUNCED DENNY) Oxley. (IF RECOGNIZE, ASK…) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him?

12. DENNIE OXLEY NAME RECOGNITION
No Recognition 83%
Favorable Recognition 5%
Neutral Recognition 10%
Unfavorable Recognition 2%
Total Awareness 17%
Hard Opinion Recognition 7%
Ratio Favorable/Unfavorable 2.5:1

12. If an election for Governor were held today, would you want to see Mitch Daniels re-elected Governor or would you prefer that someone else be given a chance to do better?

13. RE-ELECT GOVERNOR MITCH DANIELS
Re-Elect Mitch Daniels 48%
Elect Someone New 40%
Uncertain 12%

13. In a General Election for President held today, who would you favor between (ROTATE ORDER) John McCain and Barack Obama? (IF UNDECIDED, ASK…) Even though you are uncertain about your vote, which candidate would it be if you just had to say (ROTATE ORDER) John McCain or Barack Obama?

14. PRESIDENTIAL TRIAL HEAT
Vote John McCain 43%
Lean John McCain 2%
Undecided 11%
Lean Barack Obama 2%
Vote Barack Obama 41%
Total John McCain 45%
Total Barack Obama 43%

14. In an election for Governor held today, which candidate would you favor (ROTATE ORDER) Jill Long-Thompson, the Democrat; Mitch Daniels, the Republican or Andrew Horning, the Libertarian? (IF UNDECIDED, ASK…) Even though you are uncertain about your vote, which candidate would it be if you just had to say (ROTATE ORDER) Jill Long-Thompson, Mitch Daniels or Andrew Horning?

15. TRIAL HEAT FOR GOVERNOR
Vote Jill Long-Thompson 33%
Lean Jill Long-Thompson 2%
Vote Mitch Daniels 50%
Lean Mitch Daniels 3%
Vote Andrew Horning 3%
Lean Andrew Horning 0%
Total Jill Long-Thompson 35%
Total Mitch Daniels 53%
Total Andrew Horning 3%
Undecided 9%

15. I am going to start two sentences and ask you to finish each with your own words. (ROTATE ORDER) The first/next sentence is: “If I have one hesitation voting to re-elect Mitch Daniels Governor, it would be…” (PROBE)

16. HESITATION ABOUT MITCH DANIELS
Poor Job, No Improvement, Wrong Direction 10%
Political Identification 2%
Selling Of Toll Road, Highway Issues 8%
Dishonest, Do Not Trust 4%
Privatization 4%
Stand On Issues 3%
Property Tax Issues 5%
Lack Of Support For Education 3%
Lack Of Jobs, Favors Out-Sourcing 3%
Budget, Spending 1%
Does Not Represent Everyone 2%
Do Not Like, Would Not Vote For 3%
No Hesitation 32%
Uncertain 15%
Other 5%

16. The first/next sentence is: “If I have one hesitation voting for Jill Long-Thompson for Governor, it would be…” (PROBE)

17. HESITATION ABOUT JILL LONG-THOMPSON
Not Familiar With, Need More Information 31%
Political Identification 5%
Lack Of Experience, Qualifications 11%
Dishonest, Do Not Trust 2%
Negative Campaign 2%
Stand On The Issues, Do Not Agree With 7%
Favor Mitch Daniels 1%
Past Record, Poor Job 1%
She Is A Woman 1%
Do Not Like, Will Not Vote For 2%
No Hesitation 24%
Uncertain 10%
Other 3%

17. Governor Daniels’ Property Tax Relief Plan will permanently cap property taxes at a 1% cap on homeowners, a 2% cap for rentals and a 3% cap on businesses. To fund most of this plan, a onecent increase in the state sales tax was enacted. Do you favor or oppose this Property Tax Relief Plan? (CONTINUE WITH…) Do you feel strongly about that?

18. PROPERTY TAX RELIEF PLAN
Strongly Oppose 13%
Oppose 12%
Uncertain 16%
Favor 32%
Strongly Favor 27%
Total Oppose 25%
Total Favor 59%

18. Over the last few years, state government has considered privatizing some of its functions to reduce costs and make state government more efficient. Do you favor or oppose state government privatizing some functions? (CONTINUE WITH…) Do you feel strongly about that?

19. PRIVATIZE GOVERNMENT FUNCTIONS
Strongly Oppose 19%
Oppose 20%
Uncertain 17%
Favor 27%
Strongly Favor 18%
Total Oppose 39%
Total Favor 45%

19. The Kernan-Shepard Commission made recommendations to reform and restructure local government in Indiana in order to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of its operations and reduce its costs to Hoosier taxpayers. Which proposal, if any, of the Kernan-Shepard Commission do you support the most: (RANDOM ORDER) Establish a single-person elected county chief executive, eliminate township government, reorganize school districts to achieve a minimum student population of 2,000, require all library and special district budgets be approved by a county fiscal body, or do you not support the Kernan-Shepard Commission? (CONTINUE WITH…) Do you feel strongly about that?

20. KERNAN-SHEPARD COMMISSION RECOMMENDATIONS
Strongly Establish A Single-Person Elected County Chief Executive 4%
Establish A Single-Person Elected County Chief Executive 3%
Strongly Eliminate Township Government 10%
Eliminate Township Government 4%
Strongly Reorganize School Districts to Achieve A Minimum 9%
Reorganize School Districts to Achieve A Minimum 3%
Strongly Require All Library And Special District Budgets 3%
Require All Library And Special District Budgets Be Approved 2%
Strongly Do Not Support Kernan-Shepard Commission 14%
Do Not Support Kernan-Shepard Commission 8%
Total Establish A Single-Person Elected County Chief Executive 7%
Total Eliminate Township Government 14%
Total Reorganize School Districts To Achieve A Minimum 12%
Total Require All Library And Special District Budgets 5%
Total Do Not Support Kernan-Shepard Commission 22%
Uncertain 40%

20. What position on the War in Iraq do you support: (RANDOM ORDER) The U.S. should keep the level of troops the same until the mission is complete, gradually withdraw all the troops by 2011, or immediately withdraw the troops? (CONTINUE WITH…) Do you feel strongly about that?

21. WAR IN IRAQ
Strongly Keep The Level Of Troops The Same 24%
Keep The Level Of Troops The Same 2%
Strongly Gradually Withdraw Troops by 2011 42%
Gradually Withdraw Troops by 2011 4%
Strongly Immediately Withdraw Troops 19%
Immediately Withdraw Troops 1%
Total Keep The Level Of Troops The Same 26%
Total Gradually Withdraw Troops By 2011 46%
Total Immediately Withdraw Troops 20%
Uncertain 8%

21. Did you participate in the Democratic or Republican Primary Election held on May 6th?

22. PRIMARY PARTICIPATION
Yes-Democratic 47%
Yes-Republican 25%
No 21%
Uncertain/Won’t Say 6%

22. (IF PARTICIPATED IN PRIMARY ELECTION, ASK…) Which candidate for President did you vote for: (RANDOM ORDER) Hillary Clinton, Mike Huckabee, John McCain, Barack Obama, Ron Paul, or Mitt Romney?

23. PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY VOTE
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
Hillary Clinton 43%
Barack Obama 52%
Uncertain/Won’t Say 5%

23. PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY VOTE
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
Mike Huckabee 15%
John McCain 54%
Ron Paul 3%
Mitt Romney 14%
Uncertain/Won’t Say 15%

Thank you, that completes the opinion section of the survey. Now, a few questions for demographic purposes and we’ll be finished.

23. Regardless of how you are registered to vote, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? (IF INDEPENDENT, ASK…) Do you lean more toward thinking of yourself as a Republican or a Democrat?

24. POLITICAL PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Democrat 32%
Independent Democrat 11%
Completely Independent 9%
Independent Republican 12%
Republican 36%
Total Democrat 43%
Total Republican 48%
24. What is your age?
25. VOTER AGE
18-29 Years 7%
30-44 Years 23%
45-59 Years 35%
60 & Over 34%
25. What is your religious preference? (SELECT, BUT DO NOT READ RESPONSE LIST)
26. RELIGIOUS PREFERENCE
Catholic 20%
Baptist or Bible Church 13%
Pentecostal, Charismatic, Full Gospel, Non-Denominational 10%
Protestant-Methodist, Presbyterian, Episcopal 44%
Mormon 1%
Non-Religious, None, No Religion 11%
Other 1%

26. Do you consider yourself a Born-Again or Evangelical Christian? (IF YES, ASK. . . ) In a typical month, how many times do you go to church?

27. EVANGELICAL CHURCH ATTENDANCE
Not Evangelical 52%
Less than 4 Monthly 18%
Four Times or More 30%

27. Your gender is male or female? (CONTINUE WITH…) Are you employed outside the home?

28. GENDER AND EMPLOYMENT STATUS
Employed Male 35%
Not Employed Male 14%
Employed Female 26%
Not Employed Female 25%

28. In addition to being American, what do you consider to be your main ethnic background?

29. ETHNIC BACKGROUND
African-American 8%
Ethnic Majority 90%
Hispanic 1%
Other 1%

This concludes our survey. Thank you for your time.

Prepared by:
Michael R. Davis, IOM
Gauge Market Research
September 2008

www.GaugeMarketResearch.com
www.HoweyPolitics.com

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This entry was posted on Friday, September 5th, 2008 at 10:51 am and is filed under 2008 Presidential Race, Ind. Governor's Race. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.